Nevada County Weather

1:15 PM /70*F/Clear- Now Today … The day before the Superbowl 09. Not a cloud in sight. The forecast is still holding well for rain late next week.

Last year. The day before the Superbowl. No rain or snow this year. Quite dismal actually.

6:50 PM /45*F/Clear- It’s official! With the latest snow survey being a dismal 61% of normal and the likelihood of catching up this year looking very unlikely, we seriously need to look at ways of saving water now to avoid the affects of California’s worst drought in modern history later this summer. Wow.. I scared myself.  The forecast for precipitation is looking better as models are in aggreement of a low moving  through our area starting next Thursday. This again will be a cut-off low that does not offer an extended period of inclement weather like we need.  For that we need a complete pattern change and major help from that pesky upper level ridge sitting in BC. We will have to wait to see if that pattern shift does begin to happen around the 9th-10th of February.

6:09 PM /56*F/Clear- Warm day again and even more of the same for the coming days as we bask under the glory of a very strong ridge of high pressure. The next possibilty of precitpitation won’t come until next Thursday into Friday as a trough finally sets up offshore. Not too sure about the storm system in Japan. One model places the system on our doortep not until the weekend of 7th so confidence in the timing is low. The pattern is in major flux, it reminds me of how chaotic it was to forecast back in ‘92 when I was still LA.  Storm after storm kept beating the models and the forecasters back then too. I started relying on just watching satellite and countless hours of cloud watching as the front gathered over my house.  …Back to the forecast discussion, It’s pretty safe to say that by 9th of February we will be back to a wet pattern so enjoy this coming weekend ’cause it could be the last dry weekend for a while.

6:36 PM /47*F/Clear- If it feels warmer to you than normal for January then you are correct. Dry and sunny conditions will persist through Mon- Tues, but change is coming.  Computer models are closely tracking  a trough that will develop a cut-off  low and park itself off the SoCal coast. While this might bring some rain south of our area it’s still a split flow that keeps the main jet north. What we need is the northern jet to consolidate off the NorCal coast and hit the Sierra head on. This forcing would allow the best dynamics for heavy snow as the jet flow would be perpendicular in relation to the Sierra.  Alright.. I’ll stop dreaming of the “perfect storm”  and deal with what we got to work with.  So no rain in the forecast for now as the cut-off low will likely stay south with the main jet keeping north of our area for now.

5:55 PM /39*F/Clear- If you liked today then chances are tomorrow won’t dissapoint as we continue with the dry pattern. Temps should begin to moderate at night and not dip below 30*F. Daytime temps should peak in the mid 60’s late this week and continue into weekend. There’s great uncertainty about the pattern changing to a more progressive one as the models are hinting of the possiblity of a split flow developing late next Tuesday which would lessen the chances of any significant precipation next week.  Need to watch the models more closely before going with a wet forecast .

6:22 PM- Light flurries above 3,000 ft. are all but over. Clearing skies will drop temps to around 28*F tonight. The forecast still looks good. We will have an extended dry period through this week and beyond the coming weekend. We will likely not break into the 70’s but 67*F around Thursday is possible before slightly cooling for the weekend. The fantasy 10-14 day forecast chart  does show a major trough offshore by the follwing Wednesday. Too much uncertainty to go with it but it’s still fun to kick the numbers around.